Programme

Concepts and methods
Definitions of volcanic hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk; historical development and perspectives. Deterministic and probabilistic assessments; short-, medium- and long-term analyses; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty.
Monitoring and unrest
Principles of geophysical and geochemical monitoring systems. Integration of signals and recognition of volcanic unrest. Relationships among observations, models and operational assessments.
Scenarios and elicitation
Eruptive scenarios and reference scenarios. Expert judgement elicitation. Structure, construction and interpretation of event trees.
Risk components and mitigation
Assessment of vulnerability and exposed value. Evacuation, resilience and information. The role of Civil Protection and the use of scientific assessments in decision-making processes.
Effusive and explosive hazards
Hazards arising from lava flows, domes, lava fountains and Strombolian activity, and from pyroclastic flows, fallout deposits, eruption columns and ash clouds, including possible climatic impacts.
Other hazards
Hazards arising from lahars, sector collapses and tsunamis, gas emissions and seismicity in volcanic areas. Interactions and cascading events. Integrated approach and multi-hazard analysis.
Civil Protection
The role of Civil Protection, with contributions from experts from the Italian Civil Protection Department and a guided visit to its operations centre.
Italian case studies
Hazard assessment and risk management at Etna, Stromboli, Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. Comparison of different eruptive styles, territorial settings, monitoring systems and mitigation strategies.
Learning activities
Guided analysis of scenarios, maps, time series, event trees, and scientific or institutional documents, aimed at linking evidence, uncertainties, decisions and risk communication.

Prerequisiti

Basic knowledge of volcanology and volcano-tectonics is required: magma and eruption types, main products and deposits, morphologies and structures of volcanic edifices, modes of magma accumulation and ascent, eruptive dynamics and the distribution of volcanism. Elementary knowledge of statistics and probability, the ability to interpret graphs, maps and time series, and the ability to understand scientific texts in English are also useful.

Core Documentation

Textbooks, scientific articles and institutional documents are indicated by the instructor according to the topics and case studies addressed.

Reference Bibliography

various articles and textbooks indicated by the teacher

Attendance

Attendance is mandatory. The minimum attendance requirement, monitoring procedures and any provisions for particular categories of students are governed by the Degree Programme Regulations, to which reference should be made.

Type of evaluation

Assessment consists of an oral examination on the course content and applications. The oral examination assesses the correctness and completeness of knowledge; the ability to distinguish hazard from risk; interpretation of scenarios, monitoring data or event trees; integration of vulnerability and exposure; assessment of uncertainty; appropriate use of language; and argumentation skills. Overall, the examination assesses knowledge and understanding, application to real cases, independent interpretation, communication skills and the ability to integrate new information.

Programme

Concepts and methods
Definitions of volcanic hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk; historical development and perspectives. Deterministic and probabilistic assessments; short-, medium- and long-term analyses; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty.
Monitoring and unrest
Principles of geophysical and geochemical monitoring systems. Integration of signals and recognition of volcanic unrest. Relationships among observations, models and operational assessments.
Scenarios and elicitation
Eruptive scenarios and reference scenarios. Expert judgement elicitation. Structure, construction and interpretation of event trees.
Risk components and mitigation
Assessment of vulnerability and exposed value. Evacuation, resilience and information. The role of Civil Protection and the use of scientific assessments in decision-making processes.
Effusive and explosive hazards
Hazards arising from lava flows, domes, lava fountains and Strombolian activity, and from pyroclastic flows, fallout deposits, eruption columns and ash clouds, including possible climatic impacts.
Other hazards
Hazards arising from lahars, sector collapses and tsunamis, gas emissions and seismicity in volcanic areas. Interactions and cascading events. Integrated approach and multi-hazard analysis.
Civil Protection
The role of Civil Protection, with contributions from experts from the Italian Civil Protection Department and a guided visit to its operations centre.
Italian case studies
Hazard assessment and risk management at Etna, Stromboli, Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. Comparison of different eruptive styles, territorial settings, monitoring systems and mitigation strategies.
Learning activities
Guided analysis of scenarios, maps, time series, event trees, and scientific or institutional documents, aimed at linking evidence, uncertainties, decisions and risk communication.

Prerequisiti

Basic knowledge of volcanology and volcano-tectonics is required: magma and eruption types, main products and deposits, morphologies and structures of volcanic edifices, modes of magma accumulation and ascent, eruptive dynamics and the distribution of volcanism. Elementary knowledge of statistics and probability, the ability to interpret graphs, maps and time series, and the ability to understand scientific texts in English are also useful.

Core Documentation

Textbooks, scientific articles and institutional documents are indicated by the instructor according to the topics and case studies addressed.

Reference Bibliography

various articles and textbooks indicated by the teacher

Attendance

Attendance is mandatory. The minimum attendance requirement, monitoring procedures and any provisions for particular categories of students are governed by the Degree Programme Regulations, to which reference should be made.

Type of evaluation

Assessment consists of an oral examination on the course content and applications. The oral examination assesses the correctness and completeness of knowledge; the ability to distinguish hazard from risk; interpretation of scenarios, monitoring data or event trees; integration of vulnerability and exposure; assessment of uncertainty; appropriate use of language; and argumentation skills. Overall, the examination assesses knowledge and understanding, application to real cases, independent interpretation, communication skills and the ability to integrate new information.